"It's our industry": Nine principles to save European industry
The situation of industry in Europe is alarming, and its future is at stake. This dossier from lavamedia.be looks at the key issues for understanding the current crisis, and puts forward 9 principles for saving our industry.
"It's our industry!" That's what over ten thousand demonstrators shouted in the streets of Brussels on September 16, 2024. They came from all over Belgium, but there were also delegations from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Luxembourg... The European industrial trade union federation, IndustriALL Europe, had also mobilized for the demonstration. All were there to express their solidarity with the workers at the Audi Brussels plant and its subcontractors, after the group's management announced its intention to close this state-of-the-art facility. But the demonstrators' message went far beyond that. They were there to affirm that they could no longer accept the current trend towards restructuring and plant closures. The workers – those who keep the companies running – reminded us that the profits accumulated in recent years by the major industrial groups1 are the fruit of their labour and know-how, and that they are not to be cast aside, but instead employed to build the industry of tomorrow.
The future of our industry is at stake
Belgian industry is in an alarming state: the bankruptcy of Van Hool, the announcement of the closure of Audi Brussels, the restructuring at Barry Callebaut, the bankruptcy of BelGan, the plant closures by Celanese (chemicals), Sappi (paper), Ontex (diapers), Bandag (tires) and textile companies such as Balta, Beaulieu, McThree and Sioen. Planned investments in battery components at Nuode are being called into question in view of the energy costs and uncertainties in the automotive market.2 Added to this are the difficulties in the steel, metal and chemical sectors, with investments suspended at Umicore and uncertain at ArcelorMittal. The Daikin plant in Ostend has terminated 500 short-term contracts and laid off 870 workers because of a sharp drop in demand for heat pumps following the end of subsidies in many European countries. Big industry is going through a major crisis.
This observation applies even more acutely to Germany, Europe's leading industrial power, now on the brink of recession.3 Construction is at a standstill and companies are reluctant to invest. Volkswagen, the emblem of the German automotive industry, is planning to close production sites in Germany for the first time in its history. The German employers' association warns: "Without decisive measures, Germany risks rampant de-industrialization."4
German households – whose real wages have fallen by 4% since 2020 – are saving more and consuming less. Foreign demand for quality products such as cars and machinery "Made in Germany", especially from Asia – which made Germany the world's export champion in the 2000s – is declining. "Demand for German industrial goods remains weak both at home and abroad, and the lack of orders is becoming increasingly problematic,"5 explains Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of economic policy and forecasting at the DIW institute. Belgium's automotive, steel and chemical industries are closely linked to German industry, as Germany remains the country's main export destination. We shouldn't expect many new orders in the coming months.
So it's not just a cyclical problem or a bad patch. Nor is it a problem limited to Belgium or Germany. As the recent report of September 2024 by former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi shows, the whole of Europe is affected by the crisis in industry. The report calls it "an existential challenge"6 for European industry, which has a number of structural handicaps: high energy prices and lagging capabilities in the technologies of the future (including digital technologies), the slow and painful adaptation of the automotive sector to electric vehicles (EV's), and a lack of investment in infrastructure and R&D. If the situation remains unchanged, de-industrialization threatens the continent.
Automobiles: European automakers' thirst for profits leads to a dead end
The automotive industry is a major industrial sector in Europe. It directly or indirectly employs 13.8 million workers. This industry is also closely linked to other industries, upstream and downstream, such as metals, chemicals, plastics, glass, textiles, electronics and IT.
But "the EU's traditional leadership in the automotive industry has been eroded. The automotive supply chain in the EU is currently suffering from competitive lags, in terms of both cost and technology," says Mario Draghi in his report. The future of the European automotive industry is threatened by a number of factors. Firstly, manufacturers have favoured larger, more expensive vehicles because they are more profitable, making the transition to EV's unaffordable for a large proportion of consumers. Secondly, despite record profits, investment in research and development has remained insufficient, resulting in a significant technological lag compared to the USA and China. Finally, governments have invested too little in the development of recharging infrastructure for EV's, creating a further obstacle to their mass adoption and to the transition to electric mobility.
a) Prices and profits: the main obstacle to electric vehicles
The main obstacle to the switch to EV's is that they are too expensive. Their price is directly linked to the strategy of European car maufacturers. "Vehicle prices, whatever the engine, have risen considerably. As a result, the purchase of a new car has increasingly become the privilege of wealthier households, leading to a simultaneous rise in the price of used cars and an aging fleet. Yet, this surge in vehicle prices is the result of an 'upmarket move' by both generalist manufacturers, such as France and Italy, and premium manufacturers, such as Germany and Sweden,"7 explains Tommaso Pardi, researcher and lecturer at ENS Paris-Saclay and the ULB.
If we look at revenue per car since 2016, it has increased significantly for all European automakers. There are three reasons for this:
1 European automakers have massively promoted the SUV, which went from 24% of sales in 2016 to 47% in 2022. At the same time, production of small models such as the Fiat Punto (in 2018), the Peugeot 108 (in 2021) and the Citroën C1 (in 2022) has been halted;
2 Manufacturers have inflated SUV sales prices to increase profit margins. Automakers themselves often emphasize the greater profitability of SUV models to their investors.
3 Manufacturers have abused rising inflation to raise their prices, even above inflation.8
This strategy has enabled the majority of European carmakers to secure a considerable increase in their profits. Audi in this way has achieved record operating profits (7.6 billion euros9 in 2022 and 6.3 billion euros10 in 2023). Its parent company, the VW Group, has distributed nearly 11 billion in dividends to its shareholders in 2023 11. And what's true for VW is true for the European automotive sector as a whole, as a recent study 12 has shown.
All of Europe is affected by the crisis in industry
"Cars have become heavier, more powerful and therefore more expensive. There's a paradox here. Weight and power are the two factors with the greatest impact on 'fuel' consumption, whether the vehicle is electric or combustion-powered. By reducing weight and power, we would have gained on all fronts – environmental, social and industrial,"
Pardi explains. 13
A heavier vehicle, such as an SUV, also requires a more powerful battery, which is an aberration in several respects. On the social front, many workers are unable to afford such vehicles. On the industrial front, the high price is preventing the development of large-scale EV production. On the ecological front, it intensifies extraction and its negative impact on the environment, while simultaneously increasing energy demands. And on the geopolitical front, we have few of the raw materials needed to build batteries in Europe, which reinforces our dependence on foreign suppliers. Instead of producing smaller, cheaper electric vehicles, many automakers prefer to postpone their electrification plans. It's an ostrich policy, guided solely by short-term profits, which is leading us to another dead end.
b) An urgent technological turnaround
Koen Schoors, economist at Ghent University, explains: "If we do nothing, we will lose everything. We are already seeing a slowdown in the automotive industry, while car exports from China are on the rise. [...] And that's simply because Chinese manufacturers offer cheaper electric cars, that are not lower in quality, because they have this technological lead. We can either react by saying 'no, no, we have to keep making petrol-powered cars and make them as expensive as possible', or we can say 'no, we also need to strategically develop the battery sector as quickly as possible, so that we also have this technology and can make electric cars cheaper'. And that's the only way forward, because otherwise the automotive sector will become like the coal mines, that we subsidized for 20 years only to lose everything."
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This view is shared by Joannes Laveyne, researcher at Ghent University's Electrical Energy Technology Laboratory: "Innovation must be our salvation. But the question is whether Europe's automotive industry really wants to innovate. Like the Chinese sector, it has received billions in public support over the past decade, either directly or indirectly (notably via recycling premiums). If this money had been massively invested in electrification, we'd now have affordable, long-range European electric cars. But automakers decided to spend this money on developing rigging software instead, so they could keep producing combustion engines a little longer, or on hybrids that are at best only a temporary transition technology to electric, or on technologies like natural gas or hydrogen powered vehicles that are a complete waste of time and money."
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The automotive industry is at a technological turning point in its history: a turning point in production methods and a turning point in finished products. A major change in car production is the introduction of artificial intelligence, enabling the ever greater automation of the automotive industry. Alongside this transformation in production, aside from electric vehicles, the automotive industry is also seeing the emergence of self-driving cars. It won't be long before those autonomous cars – capable of driving without human intervention thanks to advanced technologies in artificial intelligence, sensors, chips, etc. – will be available on the market. In the USA and in China, the first taxi fleets made up entirely of autonomous cars are starting to appear in several cities. Of course, this development goes hand in hand with the growing use of electronics and IT in the automotive industry.
The automotive industry is at a technological crossroads
We're facing a major technological turning point, and European automakers will need to invest heavily if they want to catch up. But instead of reinvesting these resources in the industry of the future, the Volkswagen Group paid out 11 billion in dividends to its shareholders in 2023. The group is even considering laying off nearly half of its R&D staff in order to "cut costs".
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The crisis facing the Stellantis automotive group – which includes Citroën, Peugeot, Opel, Fiat, Alfa Romeo, Jeep and Chrysler – also illustrates the failure of European manufacturers. Belgian financial daily De Tijd explains:
"Until the beginning of this year, Carlos Tavares (Stellantis CEO) was still widely praised for his strategy of continuing to sell not only electric cars but also petrol-powered cars, as well as for his relentless drive to cut costs and his total focus on expanding profit margins. However, since the summer, everything has gone wrong. The cost-cutting regime no longer seems to be working. At Stellantis, the lack of investment is pointed to as the cause for the delay in the development of new models." And the newspaper adds: "During the Covid crisis and the resulting shortage of components, Tavares focused on his most expensive and profitable models. Small cars, such as the Citroën C1, have been withdrawn from the range. Now that component shortages are over, customers are no longer willing to pay premium prices for Stellantis brands."
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Chemical and steel industries in danger due to high energy costs and lack of investment
The chemical and steel industries, two pillars of the European economy, are also under serious threat. The chemical sector is key to the manufacture of essential goods such as medicines, cleaning products, cosmetics and synthetic textiles. It also supplies materials for packaging, paints, adhesives, electronics (smartphones, computers) and transport (tires, automotive parts). With over 1.2 million direct jobs in Europe, the chemical sector plays a key role in the supply chain of many industries. The steel industry, for its part, lies at the heart of industrialized societies and plays an essential role in the energy transition. Steel is used in construction, transport and industry, and is crucial to the manufacture of wind turbines and sustainable infrastructure. In Europe, the steel industry directly employs over 300,000 people and underpins over 2 million indirect jobs, reflecting its strategic importance for the economy and for the future of energy.
Belgian and European workers are among the most productive and best-trained in the world. But high energy prices have now become the main threat to the future of industry in Europe and in Belgium. "Even though energy prices have fallen considerably from their recent peaks, EU companies still face electricity prices that are 2-3 times those in the US. Natural gas prices are 4-5 times higher," 18 explains Mario Draghi. Capacity utilization in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, plastics processing, paper and textiles is at historically low levels.
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There are two main reasons for the high energy prices: the war in Ukraine, which has driven up gas prices, and the liberal character of the energy market. Even without any real shortage, the prices were strongly influenced by speculation, itself amplified by supply problems and geopolitical instability. Cheaper Russian gas has been replaced by more expensive and more polluting American shale gas.
In the European market, the price of electricity is often determined by what is called the "marginal price". This means that the cost of the last unit of electricity produced, usually from gas or coal, sets the overall price of electricity, even if cheaper sources such as renewables or nuclear power (already depreciated) are used. This mechanism makes electricity particularly sensitive to variations in gas prices. So, even though the EU produces electricity from renewable or nuclear sources, high gas prices continue to drive up tariffs, enabling some producers – particularly those with low production costs, such as nuclear – to make substantial excess profits. This makes production in Europe much more expensive than in the USA and Asia.
In response to the energy problem, several European leaders – including outgoing Prime Minister Alexander De Croo – have promised to make the North Sea Europe's energy powerhouse, with massive investments in offshore wind farms. 20
But "for now, wind farm projects in the North Sea are no more than hot air", as Belgian financial daily L'Echo concludes 21. Investment in the European North Sea is lagging behind, and there is no guarantee that the current plans will actually be implemented. Inflation, supply problems and rising interest rates are making investment much more expensive and deter private investors. The prospects for profits are not secure or significant enough to convince the private sector to make the investments needed.
Another strategic element in replacing the use of gas (mainly in the chemical industry) or coal (in the steel industry) as a raw material in industry is "green hydrogen" – hydrogen produced from renewable electricity. In its hydrogen strategy (2020), the European Commission spoke of installing 6 GW of electrolysers and producing up to 1 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2024. Here too, politicians are relying on the market and private investors to achieve their goals.
The chemical and steel industries, two pillars of the European economy, are also under serious threat
As a result, installed capacity at the end of 2023 was just 3% of the stated ambition. If we take into account the projects that should be in place by the end of 2025, we won't even reach a third of the targets put forward by the Commission. 22 The European Court of Auditors issued a scathing report this summer, claiming that the European Commission's 2030 targets will not be met either. 23
a) Chemical sector at an all-time low
Gas prices in Europe are still around twice as high today as in 2019, and remain volatile. As a major consumer of gas for its production processes, such as hydrogen production, the chemical sector is particularly affected. While chemical company profits have often reached record highs in recent years, business is now at its lowest level in 40 years. This situation is untenable.
In addition, by 2030, Europe will require 42% of the hydrogen consumed in industry to come from renewable electricity, rising to 60% by 2035. And green hydrogen is even more expensive than hydrogen produced from natural gas. To counter this, Essenscia, the employers' federation for the chemical industry, wants to continue using gas and other fossil fuels, while capturing the CO2 emissions generated during hydrogen production and storing them in the ground, with financial support from the government.
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However, this strategy represents a dangerous sidestep, with two major risks. Firstly, it maintains our dependence on gas, the price of which will remain too high and volatile. And secondly, continuing to produce hydrogen from gas by capturing and burying CO2 emissions is a risky and very expensive technology. With this approach, we run the risk of a fossil lock-in: the danger of investing heavily in infrastructures based on fossil fuels, which could rapidly become obsolete with the emergence of new, more efficient and sustainable green technologies.
To secure the future of our chemical industry, we need to invest in making it progressively carbon-neutral. One element of this is recycling. A significant proportion of plastics demand can be met by mechanical recycling (reuse) and chemical recycling. Chemical recycling companies use processes to break down plastics and other materials into their basic chemical structures, such as monomers or other raw materials, and then reuse these in the production of new plastics or other products. We need to step up our research and development efforts in this field, as well as the construction of plants dedicated to chemical recycling.
Then there's green methanol. Methanol is an essential raw material for the chemical processes of many companies. Green methanol can be produced from captured carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen. This technique is already deployed on a large scale in China. With green hydrogen and green methanol, we are able to supply almost the entire sector with raw materials for carbon-neutral production: ammonia, ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, toluene and xylene.
The workers who keep the companies running point out that the profits accumulated in recent years by the major industrial groups are the fruit of their work and know-how
However, this is not the direction in which we are currently heading. In early 2024, the Power to Methanol project, a green methanol pilot plant in the port of Antwerp, was shut down. The reason was rising energy prices and "difficult market conditions". As the world's second-largest chemical hub, the port of Antwerp has enormous assets in terms of knowledge, skilled workers and research centres. It could play a pioneering role in securing the future of our industry, jobs and the climate transition. But if we don't focus our research and investment on the technologies of the future, and we let the "market" and short-term profit prospects determine our industrial policy, we're going to miss the train. And there's an urgent need for action. "Large-scale investment has been lacking in Europe for years. If companies start building their state-of-the-art plants in other regions, we'll no longer be able to anchor this production here," 25
confirms Jan Remeysen, CEO of BASF in Antwerp and, more recently, president of the Belgian chemical industry employers' federation Essenscia.
b) Vioneo, the project that shows green chemistry is possible
Vioneo, a new subsidiary of AP Moller, plans to build Europe's first fossil fuel-free plastics plant in the port of Antwerp. The plant would produce 300,000 tonnes of plastics a year, using green methanol and CO2. Vioneo says it is certain of having a stable supply of green methanol, mainly from China. The company hopes to be able to source green methanol from Europe in the future, as projects are developed.
This production, based on renewable energies, could save 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year compared with traditional methods. The resulting plastics would be suitable for a wide range of applications, including medical and food applications. The final decision on this investment will be taken in a year's time, and if it is positive, the plant could be operational in 2028, after three to four years of construction. This project shows that the transition to a green chemical sector is technically feasible.
But a number of conditions need to be met for this initiative to become a reality. Firstly, Vioneo's plastics will be more expensive than cheap conventional plastics. We must therefore encourage the use of this type of plastic in the production chain, and control prices to ensure that this transition is not used to create excessive price increases. Secondly, we need to develop public production capacity for green electricity and hydrogen, so that they become available in abundance and at lower cost. This is the prerequisite for this type of project to work and, above all, to grow.
Thirdly, this transition must take place within an organized and planned framework. It's absurd, for example, that the Power to Methanol pilot project was recently halted.
c) The steel industry in turmoil and threatened with relocation
The European steel industry is currently going through its worst crisis since the economic and financial crisis of 2009, marked by a historic drop in production and strong pressure from international competition. In 2023, crude steel production in the EU fell to its lowest level ever. Internal demand is weak and blast furnaces all over Europe are being shut down, putting thousands of jobs at risk.
China, the world's leading steel producer, is experiencing a slowdown in domestic demand due to a decline in infrastructure needs and the crisis in the real estate sector. As a result, it exports a growing share of its production. Mary-Françoise Renard, an economist specializing in economic relations with China, explains that the European steel industry is finding it hard to compete with Chinese production, both in terms of quantity and quality, as China has invested heavily in modernizing its steel industry over the last twenty years. Meanwhile, in Europe plants are ageing and struggling to modernize due to a lack of investment and the absence of a genuine European industrial policy.
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In the UK, Tata Steel has just closed its last blast furnace. The union denounces what it calls "industrial vandalism", whereby workers pay the price for a transition that comes too late, with too little funding and after years of under-investment. 27 In Germany, ThyssenKrupp is announcing thousands of job losses to "become more profitable". 28 "If the sector shrinks by less than 30% in Europe, we'll come out alright . But I'm afraid it will shrink further than that," 29 says Geert Van Poelvoorde, CEO of ArcelorMittal Europe.
The main obstacle to the switch to EV's is that they are too expensive. And they are too expensive as a direct result of the manufacturers' strategies.
Without a change in policy, the future of the steel industry does not look promising. Here again, European manufacturers are reluctant to invest. To produce green steel, coal-fired blast furnaces are to be replaced by DRI plants 30
powered by renewable hydrogen, as well as electric arc furnaces (EAF). A DRI plant can also run on natural gas, which already offers a significant reduction in CO2 emissions compared with traditional blast furnaces, pending the availability of renewable hydrogen. ArcelorMittal had planned several investments in green technologies in Belgium (Ghent), France, Germany and Spain. So had Tata Steel and Thyssenkrupp.
However, the energy crisis has upended these plans. Faced with soaring energy costs (gas and electricity) and uncertainties over the future production of low-cost renewable energy, Europe's steel giants are reluctant to make the necessary investments. German steelmaker Thyssenkrupp wants to re-examine its plans and says it is "considering other options" than DRI.31 Tata Steel only wants to invest in an electric furnace in the UK, but not in a DRI plant, while the situation remains uncertain for its IJmuiden site in the Netherlands. And ArcelorMittal also announced that it was reassessing part of its investment to produce green steel in Europe. The DRI projects in Bremen and Eisenhüttenstadt, as well as the one in Asturias, may even be dropped altogether. 32 Those in Dunkirk and Ghent are still being studied. A decision on whether or not to invest in France and/or Belgium is expected in early 2025.
In the meantime, ArcelorMittal is studying the possibility of investing in new DRI plants outside Europe, in regions where energy is less expensive. The pre-reduced iron produced at these sites would then be imported into Europe, where only electric furnaces would be built to melt and process the pre-reduced iron. This would mean relocating the heart of steel production, namely the iron ore reduction process.
The difficulties encountered by ArcelorMittal's management are mainly linked to transport. Pre-reduced iron is extremely sensitive to oxidation when exposed to oxygen or moisture. Transporting it requires the use of specially-equipped vessels that are costly to operate. What's more, to maximize energy efficiency, it's best to melt pre-reduced iron directly in electric furnaces while it's still hot. Melting pre-reduced iron once it has cooled requires a greater amount of energy, which in turn leads to higher operating costs. ArcelorMittal has, however, recently acquired a state-of-the-art DRI plant in Texas. The Texas site, which includes its own deep-water port, is capable of producing high-quality pre-reduced iron, specially developed to overcome the problems associated with transport and handling. 33
The CEO of ArcelorMittal Europe, Geert Van Poelvoorde, has already announced that the group is building a second such facility in Texas to export the material produced there around the world. 34 More recently, ArcelorMittal Europe's CEO also said that "in the meantime, we continue to invest heavily in Brazil, India and Canada. The European branch remains the Group's largest for the time being, but we can see it declining before our very eyes. ArcelorMittal is still a European company with its headquarters in Luxembourg, but the group is beginning to shift its activities." 35
The record profits made by ArcelorMittal in Europe thanks to its workers in 2021 and 2022 are now being used by the group's management to finance the potential relocation of its operations.
Between the United States and China, Europe must chart its own course
The European Union has not had a proactive industrial policy aimed at strengthening strategic industrial sectors for decades. Instead, it has left industrial development in the hands of the market. With the Lisbon Strategy in the 2000s, the EU focused on competitiveness through free trade, labour market deregulation, privatization and liberalization. From 2010 onwards, the emphasis on austerity led to a decade of stagnation and public underinvestment. Europe has become a declining power, falling further and further behind the United States and being overtaken by China.
The impact of the Covid pandemic rekindled the debate around European re-industrialization, driven by arguments such as the need to reclaim strategic value chains. This led to the NextGenerationEU investment plan, worth 750 billion euros, funded on a mutual basis by the EU. However, by leaving the implementation of this plan to the private sector and member states, the EU has produced a patchwork of national measures, with no common strategic impetus and no truly coherent industrial policy. Then, the war in Ukraine exacerbated Europe's industrial crisis, with the loss of competitiveness primarily linked to the end of cheap gas imports from Russia. 36
Meanwhile, other countries made different choices. China, for example, has invested massively in infrastructure and industry in recent years. It also devotes significant resources to research and development, no longer limiting itself to simple processes or intermediate goods. It now develops its own technology and top-of-the-range products, and is a leader in many technologies of the future.
Volkswagen Group distributed nearly 11 billion in dividends to its shareholders in 2023
According to a recent report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, China has taken the lead in 37 of 44 high-tech sectors analyzed, ranging from electric batteries to communications based on 5G or 6G technologies. The USA only retains its lead in seven technologies, such as vaccines, quantum computing or space launch systems. 37 Europe, meanwhile, is virtually out of the picture.
Over the past fifteen years, China has become the champion of electric vehicles. According to Secafi, a French company specializing in economic and industrial analysis and consulting, Chinese policy is based on three pillars: 38
1 Central planning: production targets, recharging station installation plan, mobilization of the various levels of government (national, provincial and local), construction of the entire production chain (from raw materials to finished products)...
2 Technological leadership: massive support for research and development, progressive and permanent raising of technological standards...
3 A policy to promote uptake: encouraging the purchase of electric vehicles, stimulating mass production of low-cost vehicles, providing a large number of charging points (the European average is 13 vehicles per (public) charging station; in China, it's 7 vehicles per station)...
Ghent University economist Koen Schoors confirms that China is well ahead of Europe: "In fact, Europe has long delayed the construction of EV's. China has been working strategically for 10 to 15 years to develop this entire sector. Not only automotive production but also the battery sector. Everything to do with electrification. And if you're honest, you have to admit that they now have a technological edge. That's the main reason they can make these cheap electric cars." 39
Faced with China's rapid development, the United States is taking increasingly protectionist measures and has launched a vast subsidy programme, the Inflation Reduction Act. The aim is to attract investment in forward-looking industrial sectors such as batteries, wind turbines and other technologies of the future. And Washington doesn't hesitate to contact our industry directly to lure it across the Atlantic. Audi, for example, wants to relocate its Q8 e-tron assembly plant to Mexico, where it can also benefit from US subsidies. And ArcelorMittal will benefit from substantial subsidies for its investments in Texas.
The United States is making use of the European Union's energy dependence to finance this policy of massive subsidies. "Last year, Europe imported an average of 40 billion euros worth of fossil fuels per month. That's more than a billion euros a day going up in smoke from the fuel tanks of our cars, more than a billion euros a day disappearing from your wallet and mine, leaving Europe never to return. This money is going to the United States in particular, where President Joe Biden is using it to green the economy and attract industry away from Europe," 40 explains Ghent University researcher Joannes Laveyne.
In response to this gap, some think we're going to save European industry by opening the subsidy tap too, and barricading the European market. The Green Deal Industrial Plan, launched by the European Commission, is based on three pillars. Firstly, the deregulation of protective measures for workers and the environment. Secondly, the direct and indirect subsidies that benefit large multinationals in particular, including subsidies granted with virtually no conditions attached. Thirdly, the European Union allows multinationals to indirectly decide on its policies via consultancy or advisory platforms, in addition to public-private partnerships.
But big industry wants more, and drives prices even higher. The Financial Times even talks of a "global subsidy war". In February 2024, seventy CEOs of major energy-intensive industrial groups signed the Antwerp Declaration for a European Industrial Deal, addressed to the new European Commission. The summit, which took place at the BASF site in the port of Antwerp, highlighted two main priorities: firstly, the introduction of a subsidy policy similar to that in the United States, with equivalent subsidies in Europe, and secondly, reduced regulation. In short, more money and fewer rules.
The problem is that this approach doesn't work. In a war for subsidies, we always lose. "Multinationals have simply become subsidy hunters," says the director of the Kiel Institute, Germany's leading economic research group. Governments are now financing investments that companies should normally make themselves, especially when they are making superprofits. What's more, these companies get to keep the profits made by the new plants obtained thanks to these government investments. We have already seen the results of this strategy in Belgium: the companies pocket the handouts but when they get a better deal elsewhere, they relocate anyway.
High energy prices have become the main threat to the future of industry in Europe and Belgium
Taking protectionist measures in Europe is not without risk either. "If we impose a tax on steel imports, for example, there's a good chance that our trading partners will impose a tax on the finished products we export, such as cars, computers or Airbus aircraft. Before you know it, you're in a 'trade war'," warns Jos Delbeke, economist and professor at KU Leuven, and former director-general for Climate Action at the European Commission. Speaking of Chinese vehicles, Tommaso Pardi also warns that it's "hard to imagine their commercial foothold being halted, especially as China remains by far the world's biggest market for German automakers".
A trade war with China could have negative repercussions for European industry: Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen realise between 30% and 40% of their turnover in China. In the automotive industry, there are also fears that China could respond by complicating matters for European automakers through the imposition of additional taxes on the export of batteries, essential to the production of electric vehicles in Europe. It is precisely for this reason that German industry, including the Stellantis group, are opposed to an increase in import taxes. Following the European Commission's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric cars, China has already threatened to ban European pork. Spain, Europe's biggest pork producer, is likely to be hardest hit, but Belgian farmers will not be spared either. "We don't need a new trade war, and Spain wants to participate constructively in the search for a compromise between China and the Commission," 41 Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said.
A trade war is also what the head of chemical giant BASF fears: "China is a key element, as it will control half of the global market by 2030. Three quarters of all growth will then come from China. The major risk is the geopolitical conflict between China and the United States, which continues to escalate. We're hoping for a pragmatic solution. The solution is not to sideline China." 42
The United States is energy self-sufficient, technologically superior and has unrivaled military power. It is from this position that they attempt to subjugate the rest of the world. Europe is not in the same position, and following the USA into an increasingly hostile bloc logic is not in its interest.. On the contrary, it stands to lose a great deal by becoming ever more subservient to the USA on the economic, political, military and international front.
Europe needs to chart its own course, based on a policy of public investment in strategic sectors and cooperation at international level, away from the growing rivalry between the USA and China.
Nine principles to save European industry
If we leave it to governments, multinationals and their experts, we'll be heading for disaster. The world of work needs its own strategy. Since the Covid crisis, trade unions have rightly been sounding the alarm and calling for a new industrial strategy in Europe: "The new Industrial Strategy for Europe should be the blueprint of a future-oriented roadmap to speed up industrial recovery and avoid irreversible damages to employment and skills." 43 As time goes by, the problem deepens to the point of becoming "existential", as the Draghi report points out. It is only recently that a series of commentators have been alerting us to the technological backwardness of the old continent.
But these realizations are often limited, are coming too late and, above all, lack a vision and a plan to give Europe back a real industrial policy. Some players fed on (neo)liberal dogmas still believe that the market will solve the problem. Multinationals are reluctant to make the necessary investments and take the technological leaps of tomorrow. Too often, they prefer to squander the wealth they produce on dividends or to just chase subsidies, without any real strategy. The state lets this happen, leaving the keys to the industrial future in the hands of multinationals ready to de-invest in the continent when juicier profits or more abundant subsidies are available on other continents.
The European Union has left industrial development in the hands of the market
The challenges we face require a vision for the future and a plan to get us there. They also require a rethink of public action, to make the public a genuine player in the new industrial policy. The days when major industrial policy choices were left to the market and a few multinationals must end. Public intervention in the new industrial policy must be both more directional and more flexible, so that all the talents, energies and potential of workers, researchers, engineers, etc. can be developed. Below, we set out a series of principles for saving and developing industry in Europe.
Principle 1. "It's our industry!"
"Volkswagen will reap the resistance that its top management has sown. If VW is to regain its leadership, it cannot do so without its workers. With us, there will be no question of plant closures or mass layoffs. VW needs to come up with a solid plan for the future, cut red tape and develop an attractive range of models." This is the response of German trade union IG Metall to VW management's attempt to "cut costs", making the workers pay for its strategic mistakes.
Whether it's the workers on the production lines, the technicians that keep the machines running smoothly, the engineers optimizing industrial processes or the researchers inventing solutions for a more sustainable future, the industrial transition can only succeed if it is carried out with the full involvement of the working class and trade unions. As emphasized by Roel Berghuis, a trade unionist known in the Netherlands for having led the fight in 2020 against a redundancy plan by steel giant Tata Steel44 and for forward-looking investment in the steel industry: 45 "Together with the union, we have to take matters into our own hands. All unions need to take a much greater interest in the future of their sectors. If the unions have no vision in this regard, they allow others to impose theirs." Similarly, as Cihan Lacin, who succeeded Roel Berghuis as head of the FNV Tata Steel union, says, "You can't talk about us without us."
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In France, CGT Renault already warned in 2020 that a successful transition to electric mobility had to be accompanied by the production of affordable vehicles for working people. In the Netherlands, Tata Steel's union has taken the lead in drawing up a plan for the future of green steel production, countering the management's outdated vision. As for Audi workers and unions, they gathered 10,000 people in the streets of Brussels on September 16 to demand an industrial future worthy of the name.
The pursuit of short-term profits by shareholders, combined with the political world's blind faith in "the market", has led us to the current industrial crisis. Shareholders and politicians must put a stop to their habit of making decisions over the heads of the working class, without the working class and ultimately against the working class. The message sent on September 16, 2024 is clear: "It's our industry! We refuse to be the victims of political and economic decisions that are beyond our control."
Principle 2. A moratorium on all closures of companies essential to the transition
In light of the current crisis in industry, we need to protect the continent's industrial flagships by taking an emergency measure: a moratorium on the closure of any company essential to the industrial transition, both in Belgium and in Europe. We can't give multinationals the right to unilaterally decide to close sites that represent jewels of technology and innovation. Each closure means not only the loss of jobs but also invaluable know-how.
In the case of Audi Brussels, for example, the plant is ultra-modern and capable of producing all kinds of vehicle models. The workers, from manual labourers to engineers, have accumulated exceptional know-how, training for over a million hours between them to master EV production. Before that, they were manufacturing combustion-powered vehicles. As a result, they are versatile and possess valuable skills for the future of the automotive industry. Closing such a site would not only be a social tragedy but also a major strategic error for the industrial future of our region. It would mean the loss of our expertise in the technologies of tomorrow.
Principle 3. Major European industrial projects
Several major European public or semi-public projects have brought together a concentration of knowledge, know-how and investment.
CERN (European Centre for Nuclear Research), one of the world's largest and most famous particle physics research centres, located on the border between Switzerland and France, provides one such example. It is home to the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), a huge particle accelerator that enables thousands of scientists from all over the world to study the fundamental constituents of the universe. CERN's main objective is to understand the fundamental laws of physics, positioning Europe at the forefront of fundamental physics research.
Another example is the European Space Agency, which brings together no less than twenty-two European countries. It has enabled the development of an entire economic, scientific, technological and industrial ecosystem around projects such as the Ariane launcher, the European Galileo satellite positioning system and the Copernicus programme, dedicated to Earth observation, particularly for environmental monitoring and disaster management.
Similarly, Airbus has become a world champion in aeronautics by bringing together France, Germany, Spain and the UK from the very outset. The company still plays a central role in Europe's technological and industrial development.
There's also the project to build Europe's largest green power plant in the North Sea, bringing together no fewer than nine countries in an international cooperation initiative.
The industrial transition can only succeed if it is carried out with the full involvement of the working class and trade unions.
Of course, all these projects have their limits, and are often grossly underfunded or left too much in the hands of the private sector, as in the case of Airbus or the North Sea offshore wind farm. Nevertheless, they demonstrate that industrial and technological development depends on large-scale European industrial projects that provide a structural framework.
The policy of spreading funding and aid too thinly, or the competition triggered between governments by multinationals looking for subsidies in each country, are strategically ineffective and a source of waste. In January 2024, for example, France promised ArcelorMittal even greater state support if the steel giant invested in Dunkirk, possibly at the expense of the Ghent site in Belgium. In May of the same year, the Belgian government responded by committing to increasing state aid for investment. But all this competition does nothing to create more industrial projects; it creates windfall effects for a few multinationals, and ultimately costs the community more. Whether we're talking about energy, mobility, insulation, healthcare or the digitization of the economy, it's essential that knowledge, know-how and investment be concentrated around major, collectively-led European projects.
Principle 4. Energy: replacing the invisible hand of the market with the determined hand of the public
There can be no industrial transition without abundant, affordable and green energy. This is one of the key challenges to be met, and an essential foundation for industrial redeployment.
The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies is "a drastic societal change that needs to be properly prepared", warns Elia, the Belgian electricity grid operator, which recently published a report on the subject. Elia estimates that electricity consumption in Belgium will more than double by 2050. Current production capacities in Belgium and the investments already decided on will only cover half of future needs. That's why "we need a long-term vision that sets the course for the distant future,"
47 as the report emphasizes. Without this strategy, Belgium will increase its dependence on imported electricity, with negative repercussions on prices and the country's energy autonomy.
To achieve this triple objective, Europe has no shortage of potential. When it comes to wind power, Europe can count on its Atlantic and North Sea coasts. It can also rely, for example, on its mountains and rivers for hydroelectric power. And on the Mediterranean region to exploit the potential of solar energy.
When it comes to renewable energy production, the North Sea is Belgium's and Northern Europe's main asset. But, as we have seen, investments are not keeping pace with needs. This shows that we can't allow the vagaries of the free market hold back the development of this sector. That's why we're proposing the creation of a national public energy company that will first invest massively in new offshore wind turbines. Of course, a densely populated country with a variable climate like Belgium will never be able to supply itself entirely with renewable energies. We need to join forces with the other countries bordering the North Sea. If we want to anchor industry and employment in Belgium, and ensure a climate-neutral future, public investment and public price controls are needed, and needed right away. We need to stop the policy of putting the keys to energy in the hands of multinationals like Engie Electrabel.
We also need to consider the development of green hydrogen technology as a strategic issue. Hydrogen is needed for energy storage, but also for decarbonizing industry. Enough renewable electricity will have to be generated to split water into hydrogen and oxygen by electrolysis, so that it can be used by factories. Our ports, especially Antwerp, with its petrochemical cluster, and Ghent, with its steel industry, will have to become hubs for this essential technology. That's why we want to place the development of hydrogen technology, production and transport under public control. By controlling the entire hydrogen chain, the state will have powerful leverage to guide industrial policy.
Principle 5. The public at the heart of infrastructure development and demand stimulation
The second cornerstone of the industrial transition is the development of the infrastructure needed for tomorrow's industry. This concerns all energy production infrastructures, including hydrogen production and storage; the development of a network of electric charging stations; the development of a large network of freight and high-speed trains, urban heating networks; a building insulation plan...
We need public investment and planning in energy
As Peter Mertens explains in his latest book, Mutiny: "Europe urgently needs an industrial plan with public investment. [...] The initiative must now return to the public authorities, with a plan for public investment in energy, transport, housing, healthcare and digitization." 48 This is the plan that the PTB has developed in Make the Switch. It's a plan that runs counter to the current policy of granting subsidies and guarantees to ensure the profitability of investments by private multinationals. We want to use public money for public investment, under public control, and based on the major social and environmental needs of our time.
Thanks to a policy of public investment, the state could guarantee outlets for industry while imposing social and environmental standards. And this could speed up the industrial transition while protecting jobs and working conditions in the industry.
Principle 6. Invest massively in research and development
"Since 2000, China has increased its investment in research and development tenfold. Two decades later, it spends 560 billion dollars a year. Almost as much as the United States. At 380 billion dollars, the European Union is stagnating. It's hardly surprising that Chinese high-tech companies are on the rise," 49 explains Peter Mertens in Mutiny.
The European Union must also invest massively in research and development, based on a vision for the future. The state must require industries to reinvest their profits in innovation, instead of distributing colossal dividends. You can't make a major industrial turnaround and maintain record dividends at the same time. Shareholders have to put their hands in their pockets. This is how we can position industry based on the technologies of tomorrow, rather than the outdated recipes of the past.
Principle 7. Impose binding rules on producers, both in terms of what is produced and how it is produced
European carmakers' thirst for short-term profits has led to an industrial crisis. We need to make them mass produce electric vehicles that are affordable, not a niche product for the rich. Because without mass production, there can be no transition to electric vehicles. "European manufacturers [...] could succeed in standing up to Chinese competitors [...] provided, however, that they make the lower market segment a European priority, especially when it comes to technical and environmental regulations," explains Tommaso Pardi.
The CGT union at Renault was already defending this position back in 2020 when it advocated the production of "high-quality, sustainable cars at reasonable selling prices, with low running costs (in terms of consumption and maintenance)". It even specified that "the electric car [...] should not be a luxury reserved for the wealthy. Renault can quickly come up with a small, eco-friendly car that's not expensive and creates jobs. This car, conceptualized and designed by Renault engineers and technicians, already exists. All that's left is to build it. It's modern, designed to meet strict safety requirements, with an unrivaled Cx and therefore low fuel consumption. It can be charged from a basic wall socket. With a range of around 120 km, it is capable, without subsidy, of competing in terms of running costs with an entry-level Twingo for home-to-work journeys. All this for a selling price, excluding battery, of less than €10,000 (+ €25 per month for battery rental)." 50 Four years on, even more could be achieved on the technical and financial front.
The state must make industries reinvest profits in innovation
Measures must be taken to ensure that profits are reinvested in industrial transition. "One thing is clear: Volkswagen needs to cut costs at its German plants. This is the only way for the brand to generate enough money for future investments," 51 says Volkswagen Group management. It's time to turn this logic on its head. It's the shareholders who should be the budgetary adjustment variable, not the workers who produce the wealth. Industry is above all its workers, not shareholders. To be able to invest in research and development for the technologies of the future, the automotive industry has to cut its profit margins and dividends.
And what applies to the automotive industry applies to all industrial sectors. The state must intervene and invest to ensure a transformation of our production processes: the production of green energy and green steel (DRI), the development of a low-carbon chemical sector, etc.
Principle 8. A policy of international cooperation at every level: economic, technological and academic
By calling China a "systemic rival" to be eliminated, the United States wants to drag us ever further into the conflict with China. But Europe will fare better if it rejects this Cold War logic.
As Peter Mertens explains: "Europe cannot be non-aligned without diversifying its political and commercial relations. The more partners it loses, the more it depends on one or the other world power. Rather than being locked into blocs and 'strategic alliances', let's engage in the widest possible range of trade relations. We will then be better equipped to resist the blackmail of the 'campists' 52 and their efforts to isolate Europe from other continents." 53
Without cooperation with countries that are technologically ahead of us, have essential raw materials or economic outlets, Europe's industrial and climate transition will not be possible.
Finally, when it comes to production overcapacity and international competition, we need to engage in dialogue and take initiatives like those taken in the steel industry in 2016. That year, the world's 33 leading steel producers formed a Global Forum dedicated to steel overcapacity. Within this framework, China had agreed to reduce its steel production capacity by almost 150 million tonnes between 2016 and 2020. 54
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Principle 9. Where will we find the resources to make these investments?
As we have seen, massive investment is necessary to secure the future of our industry, particularly in the energy transition, in infrastructure in the broadest sense, and in research and development. Mario Draghi's report recommends an estimated increase of at least 750 billion euros per year for industry. The German employers' association, for its part, estimates that the country's industry will need investments of up to 1.4 billion euros by 2030 to remain competitive and meet the challenges in terms of climate, energy and technology. 55 But the employers' main aim is to capture public funds to finance private projects, a strategy that has proved to be a failure.
Massive investment must be part of public planning, and must first and foremost be used to develop public infrastructure, particularly in energy, and to fund research. At the same time, the state must require multinationals to reinvest their profits rather than squander them on non-productive dividends.
At European level, the investment challenges are enormous. Political decision-makers often reply: "There's no magic money tree". Yet this "magic" money tree was easily found in 2008 to save the banks, and now to increase military spending under pressure from the United States.
Europe will fare better if it rejects this Cold War logic
The reality is, the cost will be much higher if we don't make the investments needed. Without them, Europe will be completely overtaken on all fronts: economic, technological, climatic and social. And all these delays will cost much more.
To finance this transformation, it's time to look up, towards the top: the profits of banks and multinationals, record dividends and large fortunes must be taxed. The state must not only mobilize the resources of the ultra-rich to finance public investment but also make multinationals invest in the industrial transition. We need to put an end to the policy of giving handouts and integrate multinationals into an economic plan. Other countries and continents impose strict rules on their large companies, making them follow an industrial strategy. Why can't Europe do the same and place industrial obligations on its multinationals?
Appendix: The broken record of "excessive wage costs"
As is often the case in times of crisis, big business tries to impose measures that work against the working class, even when these measures are not connected with the real issues at stake. Recently, Pieter Timmermans, head of the Federation of Enterprises in Belgium (FEB), suggested taking "drastic measures" to combat the "wage handicap", 56 which he sees as the main cause of industry's current difficulties. In a similar vein, Stefaan Michielsen, editor of the financial daily De Tijd, argues that the crisis in the industry is "due to the increase in wage costs caused by the automatic indexation of wages". 57 Parties such as N-VA, CD&V, MR and even Vlaams Belang are all singing the same song, repeating that "wage costs" 58 are responsible for the industrial crisis. Vlaams Belang goes so far as to say that "the crucial point remains wage costs and the competitiveness of our companies in the face of foreign competition. Let's not kid ourselves." 59 While other countries are investing massively in research, infrastructure and technology to gain a strategic lead in crucial sectors such as EV's and digitization, Timmermans and Co are regurgitating the same old story about wages supposedly being too high. But the industrial problem in Europe and Belgium is not one of wage competitiveness. At Audi Brussels, salaries account for only 8% of production costs . Geert Bruyneel, former CEO of Volvo Cars in Ghent, points out that while salaries are high in Sweden and Belgium, they only account for 10% of the costs involved in the final assembly of a Volvo, and are not therefore the main cost. 60 The same is true of many cutting-edge industries such as steel and chemicals. A recent report from Belgium's National Bank even explains that "according to macroeconomic statistics, Belgian companies' gross profit margins show a long-term upward trend, with a significant acceleration since 2014. Even after the decline observed since 2022 in the latest statistics, the level of these margins is still very high." It adds that these margins are so high because "wage costs have risen much slower than labour productivity, coinciding with the decline in the share of wages in national income." 61
Wages are really not the problem. In fact, the opposite is true, as one of the reasons Belgium is doing better than its German neighbour – whose economy is on the brink of recession – is our automatic wage indexation. "Thanks to wage indexation, Belgians have continued to consume," explains ING economist Carsten Brzeski, who monitors the economic situation in the Eurozone countries from Frankfurt. "In Belgium, real wages have remained stable, while in Germany they are currently 4% below the end-2020 level." 62 While Belgians can continue to spend, German households are saving more and consuming less, making the economic situation even worse.
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Les campistes correspondent aux politiciens, industriels ou intellectuels qui veulent diviser le monde en « camps » antagoniques. Le campisme conduit le monde dans une logique toujours antagonique et guerrière.
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Article originally published in Lava magazine
