The Earth Tilts, Europe Trembles

The First Tilt: The Shifting Global Order
The most fundamental shift we are witnessing is the change in the global economic center of gravity towards Asia, and more specifically towards China (and India). 

China is no longer just an emerging market; it is a rising superpower in full development. 
Conversely, the United States, while still a formidable force, is in the early stages of decline, and the European Union, as an 'old' superpower, has been on a downward trajectory for even longer. 

These are not gradual changes; they are tectonic shifts creating shocks greater than anything we’ve experienced in the last three decades. As the book’s subtitle rightly puts it, 'The world is tilting,' and this is actively happening.

But these turning points aren't just driven by great power competition; they are also fundamentally linked to the development of technology. We are in the midst of a double transition: towards fossil-free production and towards artificial intelligence. This double transition is reshaping industries, supply chains, and the very nature of work. These transitions hinge on crucial technologies and raw materials: batteries, semiconductors, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite. These technological shifts create new possibilities, but also new battlegrounds.

And here’s a stark reality: Europe and the US are heavily reliant on China for these critical minerals, importing as much as 95%.
And in the scramble for resources, even the tragic war in Ukraine has a resource dimension, with the US reportedly seeking a raw materials agreement in exchange for support. Even Greenland, with its lithium and rare earth metals, is becoming a geopolitical hotspot. It seems the old colonial appetites die hard, even in the 21st century! ²²²²
 

The Return of Trump
Against this backdrop, the election of Donald Trump as the new US President, by a narrow 1.3% margin, is a pivotal moment. 
The issue with the American electoral system, is that when you punish one group of capitalists, you end up with another, with the fundamental differences being negligible. 

What is certain is that the Democrats have suffered a major defeat and are now in crisis.
With Trump’s return, the most reactionary faction of capital takes the White House. He seems to have learned from his first term and is preparing a program to completely purge the administration and install loyalists. 

Most notably there is the meteoric and unelected rise of Elon Musk in the US government. 
This billionaire, who bankrolled Trump's campaign to the tune of 250 million dollars, has been put in charge of a shadowy new entity called DOGE – the “Department of Government Efficiency”. 

Despite having no democratic mandate, Musk has illicitly gained access to the US federal payment system, a system handling trillions of dollars annually. He’s reportedly copying data to private servers and deleting payments he doesn't like. 
Two federal judges have already ruled this unconstitutional, and the slogan "Nobody Elected Elon" is echoing in protests across the US. 

This, my friends, isn't efficiency; it's a hostile and open takeover of the state by the billionaire class. Of course, the billionaire class has always been in control of US politics, but this is the first time it has happened so openly and blatantly.

And while there's outrage in the US, the silence here in Europe has been deafening. There are even worrying comparisons being drawn between Starmer’s austerity measures and Musk’s actions. From the proposal to set up its own DOGE to the live broadcast of mass deportations: The British government seems intent on following Washington's lead in every respect.

The UK has left the European Union, but Keith Starmer sees himself as a new kind of Tony Blair, a go-between between the US and the European Union. He now sees himself as the leader of a ‘coalition of the willing’, along with Macron's France. These are the two nuclear powers in Europe, defending the irresponsible policy of sending troops to Ukraine, face to face with the third nuclear power, Russia.
 

18 march 2025: A Historical Day
This day, 18 March 2025, will go down in the history books. The German parliament has just passed amendments revising its constitution. That process will trigger the biggest rearmament programme in Germany's history. 

That is similar to the votes in the Reichstag on war appropriations for World War I unleashed by German imperialism. The difference is that the scale of the programme now planned exceeds all previous dimensions. This is a qualitative step in militarism. 

In the last three major continental wars, Germany and France militarily at each other's throats. After the Second World War the belief grew that peace between the two European superpowers would be crucial for the continent's future. Henceforth, Paris and Berlin would no longer shoot at each other with ammunition, but only with words. One of the basic conditions was: no more German pin helmets from now on, Stahlhelme or armour. From now on, military protection was for France, the only nuclear power on the continent with a serious army and with a seat on the UN Security Council. In exchange, the economy was for Germany.

That fragile post-war balance no longer exists today: Germany again opts for massive militarisation. The haste with which the trillion-euro armament programme is being rushed through is symptomatic: the constitution is being overturned in a reactionary manner.

The very parties who for years claimed there was no money for public services are now conjuring up vast sums for weapons with the flick of a finger. This is the largest rearmament package in German history, all in the name of making the country ‘kriegstüchtig’ again - ‘fit for war’.

It’s time to inject a bit of sober analysis into this fear psychosis. We are told we must open our wallets for weapons or risk speaking Russian soon, as NATO chief Mark Rutte put it. 

Let’s look at the numbers. Russia's GDP is no bigger than the Benelux. The Russian economy is struggling, and Russian troops have failed to capture more than 20% of Ukraine after three years of war.

Why not stay serious? Even with the help of Korean troops, the Russians only managed to recapture two-thirds of the Kursk territory from Ukrainian forces after months. Kursk, that is their own territory that they are unable to defend today. 
Meanwhile, the European NATO members already spend three times more on defense than Russia. They have more warships, more tanks, more artillery, and more fighter jets. 

The truth, my friends, is that this war hysteria serves one primary purpose: to line the pockets of the biggest military producers. Defense stocks are soaring. Rheinmetall’s share price, for example, has increased by a thousand percent since the war in Ukraine began. A thousand percent!

It's a lucrative business, this fear-mongering. And who pays the price? We do! This money for militarization is being siphoned away from climate budgets, social security, and development aid. More money for tanks means less for pensions; more for drones means less for childcare. This is a political choice with consequences that will haunt us for decades.
It's time for Europe to grow up. We need to ditch the tired old adage, "Si vis pacem, para bellum" – "If you want peace, prepare for war." That has never been a slogan of peace, but always a slogan of militarisation and war.

The reality is, if you want war, you prepare for war; if you want peace, you prepare for peace. This relentless militarization of our economies is a dangerous strategy that only increases the pressure for conflict. It’s like a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

This is military Keynesianism. As Germany produces and exports fewer and fewer cars, they are switching to tanks and ammunition. That should create jobs. ‘Guns and Growth,’ reads a study on the matter. Guns as an engine of growth. This is a very bad idea. Because families buy a car, but not a tank. And if you produce weapons and tanks, you also have to make sure they are used. Otherwise, your industry goes to hell. And so that puts a pressure to keep the war going. The militarisation of the economy increases the pressure for war.

We hear everywhere that Europe needs to ‘rearm’. As if we have disarmed over the past decade. But we haven't. The facts show otherwise. In a decade, European defence spending has more than doubled.

According to the European Commission, last year member states spent about €326 billion on their armed forces. That is 2.2 times more than a decade ago. So the plans now before us are not about ‘rearming’. Nay, it is about yet more weapons
The €800bn arms package now announced is designed to position the European Union in terms of power politics. The coming months will show what further geopolitical moves the EU will make. There are already new EU military actions , from the Sahel to Mozambique, where troops are helping the local army fight insurgents to secure European energy interests.

The failure of the German government and European states to take any serious diplomatic initiative to achieve a ceasefire over the past three years is now taking its toll. They claimed to be organising military victory - which was unrealistic from the start. Now Trump is taking the initiative on his own and negotiating directly with Russia. But instead of learning from this debacle, parts of the German and European establishment cling to the failed strategy. 

Why haven’t European leaders themselves been engaging in serious diplomatic initiatives with Moscow and Washington over the past three years? Russia is not going to vanish off the map. We need a European diplomacy that charts its own course, based on international law and pragmatic relations with all global powers, be it the US, China, India, or Russia. 
 

The Vicious Cycle
The relentless drive towards militarization has a direct and devastating impact on poverty and the likelihood of war. Every euro spent on weapons is a euro not spent on schools, hospitals, or social programs. 

As Sophie Binet, the general secretary of the French trade union CGT, stated, 'For workers, there is nothing worse than a war economy'. The money that should be funding our public services and social rights will instead line the pockets of arms dealers, many of them American.

The war in Ukraine serves as a tragic illustration of this destructive cycle. Fueled by geopolitical interests and the pursuit of resources, this conflict has already cost countless lives and displaced millions. The notion that more weapons will bring peace is a dangerous fallacy. 

The arms race is becoming increasingly extreme: Proposals to spend 3% of GDP on war spending are outbid by counter-proposals for 5%.  No idea seems too absurd at the moment : they’re even talking about a common European nuclear bomb, a so-called ‘Euronuke’, whose detonator would rotate between EU capitals.

The increased military spending is not making us safer; it is fueling a global arms race, increasing instability, and diverting crucial resources from addressing the real threats we face: climate change, pandemics, and social inequality.
(A Glimmer of Hope: Socialism Instead of War)

In the face of these immense challenges, despair is a temptation, but not an option. 
There is a growing fury, a 'rage,' among the working class, both in Europe and the United States. People feel unheard, unseen, and unrepresented, and they are right. We must channel this energy into a positive vision for change.
History teaches: Wars and armament are not stopped from above, but by those who foot the bill for armament and who would be the first to suffer from war. 

The path forward lies in building a project with a long-term vision, a project to develop workers' parties to fight for socialism—a project that exudes confidence. This takes time, effort, discipline, and strategic thinking. But it is possible if we are patient, build trust within our movements, invest in education and unity, and dare to speak from the strength of our convictions.
 

Conclusion
Friends, the choice before us is stark. 
Do we succumb to the endless cycle of the arms race, driven by fear and benefiting only a select few? 
Or do we choose a different path – a path of diplomacy, of international cooperation, of investing in our societies instead of weapons of destruction?

We, the working class, have the power to shape this future. We must resist this slide towards militarism and war. We must demand a Europe that prioritizes peace, social justice, and a future where the resources are used to build a better world for all, not to fuel conflict. 

The earth is tilting, and Europe stands at a crossroads. The future is not predetermined. It depends on us, on our ability to seize new opportunities, to mobilize, to organize, and to fight for a socialist future. The perspective of socialism offers us that hope, that vision of a world where cooperation triumphs over competition, and where the needs of the many outweigh the greed of the few. 
 

Let us work together, here in London and across the globe, to build that future.